An Exploratory Analysis of COVID Bot vs Human Disinformation Dissemination stemming from the Disinformation Dozen on Telegram (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2021 led to a worldwide health crisis that was accompanied by an infodemic. A group of 12 social media personalities, dubbed the ``Disinformation Dozen", were identified as key in spreading disinformation regarding the COVID-19 virus, treatments, and vaccines. This study focuses on the spread of disinformation propagated by this group on Telegram, a mobile messaging and social media platform. After segregating users into three groups -- the Disinformation Dozen, bots, and humans --, we perform an investigation with a dataset of Telegram messages from January to June 2023, comparatively analyzing temporal, topical, and network features. We observe that the Disinformation Dozen are highly involved in the initial dissemination of disinformation but are not the main drivers of the propagation of disinformation. Bot users are extremely active in conversation threads, while human users are active propagators of information, disseminating posts between Telegram channels through the forwarding mechanism.

Cyborgs for strategic communication on social media (preprint)

Social media platforms are a key ground of information consumption and dissemination. Key figures like politicians, celebrities and activists have leveraged on its wide user base for strategic communication. Strategic communications, or StratCom, is the deliberate act of information creation and distribution. Its techniques are used by these key figures for establishing their brand and amplifying their messages. Automated scripts are used on top of personal touches to quickly and effectively perform these tasks. The combination of automation and manual online posting creates a Cyborg social media profile, which is a hybrid between bot and human. In this study, we establish a quantitative definition for a Cyborg account, which is an account that are detected as bots in one time window, and identified as humans in another. This definition makes use of frequent changes of bot classification labels and large differences in bot likelihood scores to identify Cyborgs. We perform a large-scale analysis across over 3.1 million users from Twitter collected from two key events, the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic and 2020 US Elections. We extract Cyborgs from two datasets and employ tools from network science, natural language processing and manual annotation to characterize Cyborg accounts. Our analyses identify Cyborg accounts are mostly constructed for strategic communication uses, have a strong duality in their bot/human classification and are tactically positioned in the social media network, aiding these accounts to promote their desired content. Cyborgs are also discovered to have long online lives, indicating their ability to evade bot detectors, or the graciousness of platforms to allow their operations.

The Role of Masks in Mitigating Viral Spread on Networks (preprint)

Masks have remained an important mitigation strategy in the fight against COVID-19 due to their ability to prevent the transmission of respiratory droplets between individuals. In this work, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the impact of mask-wearing. To this end, we propose a novel agent-based model of viral spread on networks where agents may either wear no mask or wear one of several types of masks with different properties (e.g., cloth or surgical). We derive analytical expressions for three key epidemiological quantities: the probability of emergence, the epidemic threshold, and the expected epidemic size. In particular, we show how the aforementioned quantities depend on the structure of the contact network, viral transmission dynamics, and the distribution of the different types of masks within the population. Through extensive simulations, we then investigate the impact of different allocations of masks within the population and trade-offs between the outward efficiency and inward efficiency of the masks. Interestingly, we find that masks with high outward efficiency and low inward efficiency are most useful for controlling the spread in the early stages of an epidemic, while masks with high inward efficiency but low outward efficiency are most useful in reducing the size of an already large spread. Lastly, we study whether degree-based mask allocation is more effective in reducing the probability of epidemic as well as epidemic size compared to random allocation. The result echoes the previous findings that mitigation strategies should differ based on the stage of the spreading process, focusing on source control before the epidemic emerges and on self-protection after the emergence.

Analysis of External Content in the Vaccination Discussion on Twitter (preprint)

The spread of coronavirus and anti-vaccine conspiracies online hindered public health responses to the pandemic. We examined the content of external articles shared on Twitter from February to June 2020 to understand how conspiracy theories and fake news competed with legitimate sources of information. Examining external content--articles, rather than social media posts--is a novel methodology that allows for non-social media specific analysis of misinformation, tracking of changing narratives over time, and determining which types of resources (government, news, scientific, or dubious) dominate the pandemic vaccine conversation. We find that distinct narratives emerge, those narratives change over time, and lack of government and scientific messaging on coronavirus created an information vacuum filled by both traditional news and conspiracy theories.

A Fine-Grained Analysis of Misinformation in COVID-19 Tweets (preprint)

In the past few years, there has been an expeditious growth in the usage of social media platforms and blogging websites which has passed 3.8 billion marks of active users that use text as a prominentmeans for interactive communication. A fraction of users spread misinformation on social media. As Twitter has 330 million monthly active users, researchers have been using it as a source of data for misinformation identification. In this paper, we have proposed a Twitter dataset for fine-grained classification. Our dataset is consists of 1970 manually annotated tweets and is categorized into 4 misinformation classes, i.e, “Irrelevant”, “Conspiracy”, “True Information”, and “False Information” based on response erupted during COVID-19. In this work, we also generated useful insights on our dataset and performed a systematic analysis of various language models, namely, RNN (BiLSTM, LSTM), CNN (TextCNN), BERT, ROBERTA, and ALBERT for the classification task on our dataset. Through our work, we aim at contributing to the substantial efforts of the research community for the identification and mitigation of misinformation on the internet.

The Coronavirus is a Bioweapon: Analysing Coronavirus Fact-Checked Stories (preprint)

The 2020 coronavirus pandemic has heightened the need to flag coronavirus-related misinformation, and fact-checking groups have taken to verifying misinformation on the Internet. We explore stories reported by fact-checking groups PolitiFact, Poynter and Snopes from January to June 2020, characterising them into six story clusters before then analyse time-series and story validity trends and the level of agreement across sites. We further break down the story clusters into more granular story types by proposing a unique automated method with a BERT classifier, which can be used to classify diverse story sources, in both fact-checked stories and tweets.

A Weakly Supervised Approach for Classifying Stance in Twitter Replies (preprint)

Conversations on social media (SM) are increasingly being used to investigate social issues on the web, such as online harassment and rumor spread. For such issues, a common thread of research uses adversarial reactions, e.g., replies pointing out factual inaccuracies in rumors. Though adversarial reactions are prevalent in online conversations, inferring those adverse views (or stance) from the text in replies is difficult and requires complex natural language processing (NLP) models. Moreover, conventional NLP models for stance mining need labeled data for supervised learning. Getting labeled conversations can itself be challenging as conversations can be on any topic, and topics change over time. These challenges make learning the stance a difficult NLP problem. In this research, we first create a new stance dataset comprised of three different topics by labeling both users' opinions on the topics (as in pro/con) and users' stance while replying to others' posts (as in favor/oppose). As we find limitations with supervised approaches, we propose a weakly-supervised approach to predict the stance in Twitter replies. Our novel method allows using a smaller number of hashtags to generate weak labels for Twitter replies. Compared to supervised learning, our method improves the mean F1-macro by 8\% on the hand-labeled dataset without using any hand-labeled examples in the training set. We further show the applicability of our proposed method on COVID 19 related conversations on Twitter.

Social Cybersecurity Chapter 13: Casestudy with COVID-19 Pandemic (preprint)

The purpose of this case study is to leverage the concepts and tools presented in the preceding chapters and apply them in a real world social cybersecurity context. With the COVID-19 pandemic emerging as a defining event of the 21st Century and a magnet for disinformation maneuver, we have selected the pandemic and its related social media conversation to focus our efforts on. This chapter therefore applies the tools of information operation maneuver, bot detection and characterization, meme detection and characterization, and information mapping to the COVID-19 related conversation on Twitter. This chapter uses these tools to analyze a stream containing 206 million tweets from 27 million unique users from 15 March 2020 to 30 April 2020. Our results shed light on elaborate information operations that leverage the full breadth of the BEND maneuvers and use bots for important shaping operations.

Characterizing COVID-19 Misinformation Communities Using a Novel Twitter Dataset (preprint)

From conspiracy theories to fake cures and fake treatments, COVID-19 has become a hot-bed for the spread of misinformation online. It is more important than ever to identify methods to debunk and correct false information online. In this paper, we present a methodology and analyses to characterize the two competing COVID-19 misinformation communities online: (i) misinformed users or users who are actively posting misinformation, and (ii) informed users or users who are actively spreading true information, or calling out misinformation. The goals of this study are two-fold: (i) collecting a diverse set of annotated COVID-19 Twitter dataset that can be used by the research community to conduct meaningful analysis; and (ii) characterizing the two target communities in terms of their network structure, linguistic patterns, and their membership in other communities. Our analyses show that COVID-19 misinformed communities are denser, and more organized than informed communities, with a possibility of a high volume of the misinformation being part of disinformation campaigns. Our analyses also suggest that a large majority of misinformed users may be anti-vaxxers. Finally, our sociolinguistic analyses suggest that COVID-19 informed users tend to use more narratives than misinformed users.

Characterizing Communities of Hashtag Usage on Twitter During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic by Multi-view Clustering (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a flurry of online activity on social media sites. As such, analysis of social media data during the COVID-19 pandemic can produce unique insights into discussion topics and how those topics evolve over the course of the pandemic. In this study, we propose analyzing discussion topics on Twitter by clustering hashtags. In order to obtain high-quality clusters of the Twitter hashtags, we also propose a novel multi-view clustering technique that incorporates multiple different data types that can be used to describe how users interact with hashtags. The results of our multi-view clustering show that there are distinct temporal and topical trends present within COVID-19 twitter discussion. In particular, we find that some topical clusters of hashtags shift over the course of the pandemic, while others are persistent throughout, and that there are distinct temporal trends in hashtag usage. This study is the first to use multi-view clustering to analyze hashtags and the first analysis of the greater trends of discussion occurring online during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Divide in Vaccine Belief in COVID-19 Conversations: Implications for Immunization Plans (preprint)

The development of a viable COVID-19 vaccine is a work in progress, but the success of the immunization campaign will depend upon public acceptance. In this paper, we classify Twitter users in COVID-19 discussion into vaccine refusers (anti-vaxxers) and vaccine adherers (vaxxers) communities. We study the divide between anti-vaxxers and vaxxers in the context of whom they follow. More specifically, we look at followership of 1) the U.S. Congress members, 2) four major religions (Christianity, Hinduism, Judaism and Islam), 3) accounts related to the healthcare community, and 4) news media accounts. Our results indicate that there is a partisan divide between vaxxers and anti-vaxxers. We find a religious community with a higher than expected fraction of anti-vaxxers. Further, we find that the variance of vaccine belief within the news media accounts operated by Russian and Iranian governments is higher compared to news media accounts operated by other governments. Finally, we provide messaging and policy implications to inform the COVID-19 vaccine and future vaccination plans.

Disinformation and Misinformation on Twitter during the Novel Coronavirus Outbreak (preprint)

As the novel coronavirus spread globally, a growing public panic was expressed over the internet. We examine the public discussion concerning COVID-19 on Twitter. We use a dataset of 67 million tweets from 12 million users collected between January 29, 2020 and March 4, 2020. We categorize users based on their home countries, social identities, and political orientation. We find that news media, government officials, and individual news reporters posted a majority of influential tweets, while the most influential ones are still written by regular users. Tweets mentioning "fake news" URLs and disinformation story-lines are also more likely to be spread by regular users. Unlike real news and normal tweets, tweets containing URLs pointing to "fake news" sites are most likely to be retweeted within the source country and so are less likely to spread internationally.